Pakpublishers detailed analysis on Pakistan economy till now

Business posted on 1/3/2020 6:09:50 PM by Sana , Likes: , Comments: 0, Views: 765

Pakpublishers detailed analysis on Pakistan economy till now
Detailed analysis on Pakistani economy till december end 2020,2019

Pakistan Economy Data:

Years: 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017

Population (million): 183 186 190 194 197
GDP per capita (USD): 1,267 1,314 1,426 1,440 1,545
GDP (USD bn): 231 245 271 279 305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %): 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.2
Consumption (annual variation in %): 2.1 5.6 2.9 7.6 8.5
Investment (annual variation in %): 2.6 2.5 15.8 7.5 10.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %): 0.8 4.5 5.2 5.7 4.6
Unemployment Rate: 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -8.0 -5.5 -5.3 -4.6 -5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP): 62.6 62.7 61.8 65.5 65.1
Money (annual variation in %): 16.9 12.6 12.8 14.5 13.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop): 9.2 4.3 3.2 3.7 4.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %): 7.7 7.2 2.5 3.8 4.1
Policy Interest Rate (%): 9.00 10.00 6.50 5.75 5.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD): 105.4 100.8 104.9 104.4 110.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop): 101.5 101.0 102.8 104.7 105.3
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7 -4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn): -2.5 -3.1 -2.8 -4.9 -12.6
Trade Balance (USD billion): -15.4 -16.6 -17.3 -19.3 -26.7
Exports (USD billion): 24.8 25.1 24.1 22.0 22.0
Imports (USD billion): 40.2 41.7 41.4 41.3 48.7
Exports (annual variation in %): 0.3 1.1 -3.9 -8.8 0.1
Imports (annual variation in %): -0.5 3.8 -0.7 -0.2 18.0
International Reserves (USD): 8.5 11.8 16.0 20.9 18.7
External Debt (% of GDP): 26.3 26.7 24.1 26.5 27.4

INTRODUCTION:

Pakistan officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a country in South Asia. It has a 1,046-kilometre (650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in the far northeast.Tajikistan also lies very close to Pakistan but is separated by the narrow Wakhan Corridor. Strategically it is located in a position between the important regions of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.

Pakistan is a federal parliamentary republic consisting of four provinces and four federal territories. With over 170 million people, it is the sixth most populous country in the world] and has the second largest Muslim population after Indonesia. It is an ethnically and linguistically diverse country with a similar variation in its geography and wildlife. With a semi-industrialized economy, it is the 27th largest in the world in terms of purchasing power. Since gaining independence, Pakistan’s history has been characterised by periods of military rule, political instability and conflicts with neighbouring India. The country faces challenging problems including poverty, illiteracy, corruption and terrorism.

Pakistan has the seventh largest standing armed force and is the only Muslim-majority nation to possess nuclear weapons. It is designated as a major non-NATO ally of the United States. It is a founding member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and a member of the United Nations,[ Commonwealth of Nations, Next Eleven economies and the G20 developing nations.

PESTEL ANALYSIS/POLITICAL ANALYSIS:

Pakistan is a democratic parliamentary federal republic with Islam as the state religion. The first Constitution of Pakistan was adopted in 1956, but was suspended in 1958 by General Ayub Khan. The Pakistani military has played an influential role in mainstream politics throughout Pakistan’s history, with military presidents ruling from 1958-71, 1977-88 and from 1999-2008. The 1990s were characterised by coalition politics dominated by the Pakistan Peoples Party and a rejuvenated Muslim League. Pakistan is an active member of the United Nations (UN) and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the latter of which Pakistan has used as a forum for Enlightened Moderation, a plan to promote a renaissance and enlightenment in the Muslim world. Pakistan is also a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO)

Political Effectiveness:

The Pakistani military has played an influential role in mainstream politics throughout Pakistan’s history, with military presidents ruling from 1958-71, 1977-88 and from 1999-2008. Pakistan has fairly political effect on the country if it is in the rural or in the urban areas, elected representative are responsible to solve their problems. Elected representatives are more often belongs to the urban, they are as important as the rural.

Institutional Stability:

Pakistan has very bad atmosphere regarding to manage the organizational structure, whether that belong to the government or belong to the private sector. There are too many changes and it keeps the country from growing fast and healthy.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS:

Pakistan has a semi-industrialized economy. Despite being a very poor country in 1947, Pakistan’s economic growth rate has been better than the global average during the subsequent four decades, but imprudent policies led to a slowdown in the late 1990s. GDP growth was steady during the mid-2000s at a rate of 7%; however, slowed down during the Economic crisis of 2008 to 4.7%. A large inflation rate of 24.4% and a low savings rate, and other economic factors, continue to make it difficult to sustain a high growth rate. Pakistan’s GDP is US$167 billions. The structure of the Pakistani economy has changed from a mainly agricultural base to a strong service base. Agriculture now only accounts for roughly 20% of the GDP, while the service sector accounts for 53% of the GDP. Significant foreign investments have been made in several areas including telecommunications, real estate and energy. Other important industries include apparel and textiles (accounting for nearly 60% of exports), food processing, chemicals manufacture, and the iron and steel industries. Pakistan’s exports in 2008 amounted to $20.62 billion (USD). Pakistan is a rapidly developing country.

Historically, Pakistan’s overall economic output (GDP) has grown every year since a 1951 recession. Despite this record of sustained growth, Pakistan’s economy had, until a few years ago, been characterized as unstable and highly vulnerable to external and internal shocks. However, the economy proved to be unexpectedly resilient in the face of multiple adverse events concentrated into a four-year (1998-2002) period –

the Asian financial crisis.

economic sanctions – according to Colin Powell, Pakistan was “sanctioned to the eyeballs”.

The global recession of 2001-2002:

a severe drought – the worst in Pakistan’s history, lasting about four years;

heightened perceptions of risk as a result of military tensions with India – with as many as 1 million troops on the border, and predictions of

impending (potentially nuclear) war:

The post-9/11 military action in neighboring Afghanistan, with a massive influx of refugees from that country.

Despite these adverse events, Pakistan’s economy kept growing, and economic growth accelerated towards the end of this period. This resilience has led to a change in perceptions of the economy, with leading international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and the ADB praising Pakistan’s performance in the face of adversity.

Due to inflation and economic crisis worldwide, Pakistan’s economy reached a state of Balance of Payment crisis. “The International Monetary Fund bailed out Pakistan in November 2008 to avert a balance of payments crisis and in July last year increased the loan to $11.3 billion from an initial $7.6 billion.” Today Pakistan is amongst the elite group of 11 countries,also termed as ‘The Next Eleven”identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming the world’s largest economies in the 21st century along with the BRICs.

By October 2007, Pakistan raised back its Foreign Reserves to a handsome $16.4 billion. Exceptional policies kept Pakistan’s trade deficit controlled at $13 billion, exports boomed to $18 billion, revenue generation increased to become $13 billion and attracted foreign investment of $8.4 billion.

The middle term however may be less turbulent, depending on the political environment. The EIU estimates that inflation should drop back to single digits in 2010, and that growth should pick up to over 5% per annum by 2011. Although less than the previous 5 year average of 7%, it would represent an overcoming of the present crisis wherein growth is a mere 3.5-4%.


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